本文转自：文学文明研讨
The Coronavirus Pandemic
Will Forever Alter the World Order
The U.S. must protect its citizens from disease while starting the urgent work of planning for a new epoch.
By Henry A. Kissinger April 3,2020
The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.
Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done. The coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its spread is exponential: U.S. cases are doubling every fifth day. At this writing, there is no cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed. Testing is inadequate to the task of identifying the extent of infection, much less reversing its spread. A successful vaccine could be 12 to 18 months away. The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will be whether the virus's spread can be arrested and then reversed in a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in Americans, ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.
Leaders are dealing with the crisis on a largely national basis, but the virus's society dissolving effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health will— hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus. Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do both in tandem, we will face the worst of each. Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S. is obliged to undertake a major effort in three domains. First, shore up global resilience to infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling, cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of science.
Second, strive to heal the wounds to the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its speed and global scale, unlike anything ever known in history. And necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of impending chaos on the world's most vulnerable populations.
Third, safeguard the principles of the liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, other times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people from an external enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, fundamental needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people. The world's democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague. Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.
We went on from the Battle of the Bulge into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human dignity. Now, we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.
Mr. Kissinger served as secretary of state and national security adviser in the Nixon and Ford administrations.
新冠暴虐将永久改动国际次序
新冠肺炎全球大盛行下的超实际气氛让我不由想起自己年轻时参与二战杰出部战争的阅历，其时我在第84步兵师。今日的状况和1944年底相同，有一种风险的预兆。这种风险不是针对任何特定的人，但带有惊人的随机性和毁灭性。咱们当今的年代和那个悠远的年代比较有着很大差异。那时候，有种国家的终极目标在锻炼着美国的坚毅。现在，在一个割裂的国家，咱们应该有效率、有远见的政府，才干打败规划和规划都史无前例的全球性障碍。而坚持大众信赖关于社会内部联合、社会间联系以及国际和平与安稳而言都至关重要。
国家的联合和昌盛树立在这样的信仰之上：他们的体系可以预见灾祸、操控影响并康复安稳。比及新冠大盛行结束时，许多国家的体系将被以为没能饱尝住检测。这种判别是否客观公平并不重要。由于实际便是，阅历新冠疫情之后，国际将不复原貌。而羁绊于对过去的争辩只会让咱们更难去做该做的事。
新冠病毒正以咱们前所未见的规划和残酷汹涌来袭。疫情正出现指数级延伸：美国的感患病例每五天就翻一番。截止撰稿之时，依然没有治好新冠肺炎的特效办法。医疗物资也不足以敷衍一波又一波的病例。重症监护病房已不堪重负。检测才能不足以承认病毒感染的规划与程度，更不用说阻断病毒传达。但间隔疫苗成功研发，还有12到18个月。
美国政府在防止立刻迸发的大灾祸方面做了厚实的作业。终极检测是能否操控住疫情延伸、扭转局势，且疫情反转的方法和规划能坚持住大众对美国人自我管理才能的决心。不管这场抗击危机的战争多么浩大、多么必要，都不该挤掉这个急迫的使命：为过渡到新冠疫情后的新次序树立一个平行机制。
各国领导人主要在国家层面处理这场危机，但这种病毒对社会的穿透力是不分国界的。尽管病毒对人类健康的侵袭是一时的——至少期望如此，但它所引发的政治和经济动乱可能会继续几代人。没有一个国家，包含美国在内，仅凭一国之力就能打败病毒。应对眼下亟待解决的问题，终究有必要同全球协作的愿景和方案相结合。假如咱们不能左右开弓，那么在两个问题上都会面对最坏的成果。
假如学习马歇尔方案和曼哈顿方案的规划经历，美国有必要在三个范畴做出巨大尽力。榜首，增强全球对传患病的抵挡才能。医学科学范畴的成功，从脊髓灰质炎疫苗研发，到天花的铲除，再到依托人工智能和计算技能的医学确诊不断涌现的奇观，都让咱们陷入了风险的自满情绪。咱们应该开发操控传患病的新办法和新技能，以及足以掩盖大规划人口的疫苗。市、州和区域有必要站在科学前沿奠定根底、协同规划并积极探索，时间预备维护其民众免受盛行病的损害。
第二，尽力治好国际经济的伤口。全球领导人从2008年金融危机中吸取了严重经验。当时的经济危机更为杂乱：从延伸速度和全球规划来看，新冠疫情引发的经济缩短是史上未见的。此外，采纳必要的公共卫生办法，如坚持交际间隔、封闭校园和企业，也加重了经济阵痛。咱们还需求相关方案来减轻疫情或将对国际最软弱人群形成的紊乱影响。
第三，维护自在国际次序的准则。现代政府创立的传奇始于由强壮的统治者维护着的、被城墙环绕的城市。这些统治者，有的独裁、有的仁慈，但都强壮到足以维护民众免受外敌侵犯。启蒙思想家从头构建了这一概念，以为合法国家的意图是满意公民的根本需求：安全、次序、经济福祉和正义。个别无法凭一己之力取得这些。但是在一个昌盛有赖于全球交易和人员活动的年代，这场大盛行促进人们重建高墙，引发了一场不达时宜的“怀旧”。
全国际的民主国家都需求保卫和坚持他们的启蒙价值观。假如全球从权利与合法性的平衡中畏缩，将导致社会契约在国家层面和国际层面的分裂。但是，合法性与权利的平衡是连续千年的问题，无法在抗击新冠疫情的尽力中同步得到解决。不管是国内政治仍是国际交际，各方都需求抑制，应辨明轻重缓急。
在杰出部战争中幸存的咱们，走向了一个日益昌盛和人类庄严得到进步的国际。今日，咱们站在一个划年代的前史节点。各国领导人面对的前史性检测便是：应对危机，一起创立未来。一旦检测失利，国际将烈火烧身。
